Coinbase Shares Could See $16B of Buying Pressure From S&P 500 Index Inclusion: Bernstein

Coinbase, one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges in the world, is now at the center of renewed Wall Street attention. According to a recent research report by investment firm Bernstein, Coinbase shares (COIN) could experience up to $16 billion in buying pressure if the company is added to the S&P 500 index. This potential inclusion marks a major milestone not only for Coinbase but also for the broader crypto market.

Why the S&P 500 Inclusion Matters

What Is the S&P 500?

The S&P 500 is a stock market index that tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. Inclusion in this index often leads to significant capital inflows, as many institutional investors and index funds are required to mirror the index composition.

Coinbase’s Eligibility

Bernstein’s analysts believe Coinbase now meets the major criteria for S&P 500 inclusion:

• Profitability: The company has posted positive earnings over the past year.

• Market Capitalization: COIN’s market cap exceeds $38 billion.

• Liquidity: Coinbase stock trades on NASDAQ with high daily volume.

• Public Float: A large percentage of shares are publicly traded.

With these factors aligned, analysts expect that COIN could be added to the S&P 500 as soon as September 2025.

Bernstein’s Forecast: $16B in Buying Pressure

According to the Bernstein report, $16 billion in passive buying pressure could flow into Coinbase shares following S&P 500 inclusion. This estimate is based on the amount of assets under management (AUM) by index funds and ETFs tracking the S&P 500.

Bernstein stated:

“Assuming Coinbase is added to the index, we expect roughly $16 billion of forced buying from index investors, including large mutual funds and ETFs.”

This type of demand could significantly lift Coinbase’s stock price in the short term and stabilize its valuation in the long term.

COIN Performance in 2025

Year-to-Date Price Chart

• January 2025: COIN traded around $135

• February to April: Fluctuated between $140 – $165

• May 13, 2025: COIN was trading at $213, marking a 57% YTD gain

The current momentum is partly driven by a wider market recovery in tech and crypto-related stocks, alongside Coinbase’s own improving fundamentals.

Coinbase Earnings

In Q1 2025, Coinbase reported $1.6 billion in revenue and $270 million in net income, showing strong growth compared to the previous year. Trading volumes and subscription services also rose, proving that the company is diversifying its revenue streams beyond simple crypto trading.

Institutional Investors and Crypto Stocks

Growing Interest

Wall Street has shown growing interest in crypto-related equities. Coinbase’s potential S&P 500 entry may further legitimize crypto companies as a part of mainstream investment portfolios.

• Fidelity, BlackRock, and Vanguard already hold significant positions in COIN.

• More institutional inflows are expected as confidence in the crypto ecosystem rises.

ETF Inclusion and Impact

Several ETFs such as:

• SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

• Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)

…will be required to purchase COIN if it’s added to the index, boosting trading volume and liquidity even more.

Wider Market Context

Bitcoin and Ethereum Stability

• Bitcoin (BTC) has traded between $62,000 and $65,000 over the past two weeks.

• Ethereum (ETH) remains in the $3,000–$3,200 range.

This relatively stable crypto market helps Coinbase by reducing volatility-driven risk and encouraging more consistent trading behavior from users.

NASDAQ and Tech Trends

• NASDAQ Composite Index has climbed 9.2% year-to-date

• Tech stocks such as NVIDIA, Meta, and Coinbase are leading the rebound

This broader tech momentum supports COIN’s bullish outlook.

Chart Analysis

Technical Overview of COIN (as of May 13, 2025)

While the RSI suggests short-term overbought conditions, the long-term chart signals upward momentum, especially if S&P 500 inclusion becomes a reality.

What This Means for Crypto Investors

If Coinbase is included in the S&P 500:

• Confidence in crypto equities will grow

• More retail and institutional investors will enter

• COIN’s price could rise significantly from current levels

• Other crypto firms might become index inclusion candidates

This could act as a domino effect, bringing more attention and capital into the entire crypto stock market.

Conclusion

The possibility of Coinbase joining the S&P 500 is a huge milestone for the company and the wider digital asset industry. With $16 billion in potential buying pressure and strong financial performance, COIN stock is well-positioned for a bullish future. If you’re an investor watching the convergence of crypto and traditional finance, this development could be the sign you were waiting for.

Keep your eyes on September 2025, as it may mark the official entrance of Coinbase into America’s top stock index, and possibly spark the next major rally in crypto equities.