A Look into XRP’s Current Market Landscape
XRP, the popular cryptocurrency associated with Ripple Labs, is once again facing downward pressure despite growing optimism surrounding a potential Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) approval. While many investors remain hopeful that such regulatory developments could push prices higher, options market data tells a more cautious story.
According to Deribit, a leading cryptocurrency derivatives exchange, traders are still hedging against potential downside risks, signaling that short-term fear remains strong even as long-term sentiment edges toward optimism.
XRP Price Holds, But Bears Still Lurk
As of Thursday, XRP was trading around $0.61, showing a modest recovery from its recent lows. Earlier this month, XRP fell below $0.58 amid broader weakness in the crypto market, following Bitcoin’s volatile movement around the $70,000 mark.
Even with a slight rebound, the “put-call skew” — a key options metric that compares demand for bearish versus bullish bets — remains tilted toward puts (bearish sentiment). Deribit’s data shows the one-week 25-delta skew for XRP options at -5%, indicating that traders are still paying more to protect themselves from price drops than to bet on rallies.
ETF Buzz Fails to Reverse Near-Term Doubts
What’s fueling ETF optimism?
Recently, the crypto community has been abuzz with speculation that XRP could follow in the footsteps of Bitcoin and Ethereum with its own spot ETF. Although no official filing has yet been submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), market participants view it as a possibility — especially after Ripple’s recent partial legal victories over the SEC.
Such developments could potentially bring mainstream investor exposure to XRP, increasing liquidity and market interest. But while long-term prospects are improving, short-term data shows skepticism remains high.
Derivatives Data Reveals Investor Caution
Options markets say a lot
Deribit’s data indicates that most of the short-term XRP options are still concentrated around strike prices between $0.55 and $0.60 — further proof that traders don’t expect a major rally in the immediate future.
Moreover, open interest in XRP options remains relatively low, suggesting that institutional players and big-money investors are staying cautious. Analysts interpret this as a sign that ETF hype hasn’t translated into significant bullish action yet.
Broader Market Sentiment and Macro Factors
Crypto market slowdown
XRP’s struggle isn’t unique. The broader cryptocurrency market has shown signs of exhaustion after Bitcoin’s recent attempt to break past the $72,000 resistance level. Ethereum and altcoins have also seen mild corrections, adding to the nervousness in the market.
Rising geopolitical tensions and uncertain regulatory signals from both the U.S. and Europe are making investors hesitant. According to market analysts, unless there is a strong macroeconomic trigger or regulatory breakthrough, XRP could continue to move sideways or even face short-term declines.
Historical Comparison: What Happened Before?
Past behavior offers insight
Looking back to previous XRP rallies, especially in 2017 and the brief spike in late 2020, market confidence was typically driven by either legal clarity or retail investor momentum. Right now, neither of those forces are fully in play.
Despite Ripple’s partial legal wins — where a U.S. judge ruled that XRP sales on public exchanges did not constitute securities transactions — the SEC is still continuing with parts of its lawsuit. This creates ongoing legal uncertainty that weighs on XRP’s potential for mass adoption and ETF approval.
Will XRP Bounce Back?
Bulls are hopeful, but charts show resistance
Technical analysts note that XRP faces strong resistance near the $0.65 and $0.68 zones. A breakout above those levels could trigger a new wave of buying, but unless supported by volume and positive news, it’s likely that XRP may continue to consolidate between $0.58 and $0.62 for the near term.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart also remains neutral, signaling lack of clear momentum. Until traders see more decisive price action, the sentiment will likely stay cautious.
Final Thoughts: ETF Hope Isn’t Enough (Yet)
While optimism around a possible XRP ETF is a positive sign for long-term investors, the options market clearly shows that traders are preparing for more downside in the short term. The ongoing SEC case, lack of major institutional interest, and weak technical signals are all contributing factors.
That said, if Ripple continues to win its legal battles, and if there’s even a hint of a formal ETF application, sentiment could shift rapidly. But for now, the data suggests that caution remains the dominant theme among XRP investors.
Key Takeaways
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XRP is trading around $0.61, with downside pressure still present.
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Put-call skew and open interest indicate more bearish than bullish bets.
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ETF optimism exists, but hasn’t changed short-term trader behavior.
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Legal uncertainties and weak technicals continue to limit upside potential.
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A breakout past $0.68 could shift momentum — but until then, the market remains cautious.